Sales went up the month we launched the new website. So the website worked, right? Maybe. Or maybe it was the season, a competitor’s price rise, or the new colleague who started calling old customers. Most poor decisions in organisations are not made by foolish people. They are made by smart people who see a pattern and treat it as a cause.
Good decision making is not a talent you have or lack. It is a set of habits you can learn and practise as a team. Here are three of them.
1. Ask: is this a cause, or just a pattern?
Two things that rise and fall together are correlated. That does not mean one causes the other. The classic example: ice cream sales and swimming accidents both go up in summer. Ice cream does not make people drown; warm weather drives both.
At work the hidden third factor is rarely that obvious. Before you act on a pattern, ask three questions:
- What else changed at the same time?
- Could it work the other way round? Perhaps motivated teams attend more training, rather than training making teams motivated.
- Would we see the same result if we had done nothing?
2. Climb the argument ladder
In meetings, opinions often sound like facts. The argument ladder helps a team slow down and check each step, from the bottom up:
- Observation: what did we actually see or measure?
- Interpretation: what do we think it means?
- Argument: why does that interpretation hold? What evidence supports it, and what speaks against it?
- Conclusion: what do we decide, and how sure are we?
When a discussion gets heated, ask on which step you disagree. Often people agree on the observation and only differ in interpretation. That makes the conversation much shorter, and much friendlier.
3. Draw the decision tree
Many decisions feel like a choice between two options. A decision tree shows there are usually more branches, each with its own consequences. Draw the options, then for each option the likely outcomes, and for each outcome what it would cost or bring. You do not need exact numbers. Rough estimates already reveal which option carries the biggest risk, and which one is simply the one you liked before you started.
Practise it together
Critical thinking grows by doing it, not by reading about it. Try this in your next team meeting: pick one recent decision and walk it through the three tools. Which step did you skip? What would you decide now?
Want to practise this way of thinking? Our Supermarketeer e-magazine explores the philosophy of marketing with real cases, quotes, cartoons and assignments that help you think deeper before you decide. Read more on our Decision Making page, or visit the Showroom.